Data last updated August 20, 2026.

Not by this measure

Yield Curve Inversion

10-year minus 3-month Treasury spread at +0.79pp as of 2026-08-19

Source: FRED series T10Y3M (10-Year minus 3-Month Treasury Yield)

Not by this measure

Two-Quarter GDP Decline

real GDP +0.5% then +0.4% over the last two quarters (2025-10-01 → 2026-01-01 → 2026-04-01)

Source: FRED series GDPC1 (Real Gross Domestic Product)

Not by this measure

Sahm Rule

3-month avg unemployment 4.20% vs. 4.23% low in the past 12 months (as of 2025-07-01), a change of -0.03pp

Source: FRED series UNRATE (Civilian Unemployment Rate), 3-month average

Not by this measure

Two-Quarter Real Income Decline

real income +0.5% then +0.3% over the last two quarters (2025-07-01 → 2025-10-01 → 2026-01-01)

Source: FRED series GNPC96 (Real Gross National Product)

• Two-quarter real income decline: real income (GNI, or equivalently GNP) must fall for two consecutive quarters.
• Two-quarter GDP decline: the same shape, applied to GDP instead — the “technical recession” definition most people actually mean by the phrase. GDP and GNI are the same total by construction, but the two independent surveys behind them can still disagree: in 2022 Q1-Q2, GDP fell both quarters and GNI didn’t.
• The Sahm rule: a real time indicator developed by Claudia Sahm. The 3-month average unemployment rate must rise 0.50 percentage points or more above its own low point over the preceding year.
• Yield curve inversion: a consistent early indicator of upcoming depressions in the United States since the 1960s. The 10-year Treasury yield must drop below the 3-month yield.

Not by this measure

Nonfarm Payrolls

1 consecutive month of decline (needs 6+ to trigger)

Source: FRED series PAYEMS (Total Nonfarm Payroll Employment)

Not by this measure

Real Personal Income, Less Transfers

0 consecutive months of decline (needs 6+ to trigger)

Source: FRED series W875RX1 (Real Personal Income Excluding Current Transfer Receipts)

Not by this measure

Real Consumer Spending

0 consecutive months of decline (needs 6+ to trigger)

Source: FRED series PCEC96 (Real Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Not by this measure

Industrial Production

0 consecutive months of decline (needs 6+ to trigger)

Source: FRED series INDPRO (Industrial Production: Total Index)

• NBER coincident indicators: NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee prefers a holistic examination of several monthly series for declines that are deep, pervasive, and persistent, rather than a specific formula. Four of those series (nonfarm payrolls, real personal income less transfers, real consumer spending, industrial production) get their own card here, and each individual card defines a recession as six or more consecutive months of decline.

These cards exist as part of my standalone open-source library.